Economic Indicators: The Week Ahead

The week ahead: July 22–26

Monday: Existing-home sales, National Association of Realtors

Tuesday: No major reports scheduled

Wednesday: New home sales, U.S. Census Bureau

Thursday: Durable goods orders, U.S. Census Bureau

Friday: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, final monthly release

 

Index/Market

Close as of 7/19

Week (%)

YTD (%)

Dow Jones Industrial Average

15,543.7

0.5

18.6

Nasdaq

3,587.6

-0.3

18.8

S&P 500 Index

1,692.1

0.7

20.7

MSCI EAFE Index

1,733.5

1.3

8.1

Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index

1,806.8

0.7

-2.0

Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master II Index

990.6

1.3

4.1

Barclays Municipal Bond Index

972.4

-0.2

-3.4

10–Year U.S. Treasuries (Yield)

2.47%

-4.3

45.3

Oil ($/barrel)

108.5

2.4

18.2

Gold ($/oz)

1,296.1

0.8

-22.6

Equity data reflect price changes, not total return.

Source: Morningstar

SWKS (Bullish) – Elliot Wave Consolidation Complete, Support

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wGtoeidh/

– Beginning of Next Elliot Wave Series
– Key support at 50% Retracement from weekly high/low
– Rising RSI
– Strong Volume Last Week
– 1st Price Target at $29.51
– 2nd Price Target at $37.34
– Buy on Breakout above $24.43 Level, use as stop
– Pay attention to price behavior when approaching wedge’s upper trend line

https://www.tradingview.com/v/pO651xiS/

DDD – Long – Rising wedge consolidation; Fib/MA Support

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PG347YAk/

      • DDD looks like a buy (Should it hold the key 76.4 Fib level.
      • SMA(20,50) should act as support in the bullish case
      • Rising near previous highs, just not as overbought
      • First Price Target @ $52
      • https://www.tradingview.com/e/QedHMNkz/

Existing Home Sales: July 22, 2013

Look for a pick up in existing home sales due to both seasonal factors and a psychological incentive to buy a house before there is a further increase in mortgage rates as they’ve begun to trend up in the past couple months.

  Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Existing Home Sales – Level – SAAR 5.18 M 5.27 M 5.01 M to 5.45 M

“Existing home sales in May jumped 4.2 percent to an annual sales rate of 5.18 million which was the highest since the home stimulus credits of late 2009. The gain was very convincing and was centered in the key single-family home category which is up 5.0 percent in the May report on top of a 1.2 percent gain in April. Price data were striking with the median price is 8.4 percent in May alone to a recovery best $208,000. The average price, at $255,300, was up 5.6 percent in the month. Year-on-year gains are 15.4 percent for the median price and 11.2 percent for the average. These price data are not derived from repeat transactions and are subject to substantial volatility, but the gains are outstanding nevertheless. Supply did come into the market in May, totaling 2.22 million homes for sales versus 2.15 million in April, but declined relative to the surging sales rate. Supply measured against sales was at 5.1 months compared to 5.2 months in April.” (Bloomberg)

[Chart]

Sources: Bloomberg.com

PDS (Bullish) – Break above Consolidation Wedge, MA Crossovers

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5kmKTFZX/

  • Rising Wedge Formation w/ major resistance @ $9.33
  • SMA (100,200) Crossover on weekly chart
  • Resistance Level is @ the 50% retracement from the previous high/low
  • First Price Target @ $11.16
  • Second Price Target @ $12.82
  • Sharp recovery of last weekly candle to finish above key moving averages.
  • https://www.tradingview.com/v/wuHtqOmf/

IBM – Testing 100 day MA, Bearish candle Target 181.46

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Nuk0xfLn/

  • Despite beating on earnings, IBM missed revenue targets last week
  • Bearish candle last week showing low demand
  • Look for a breakout below the 100 week MA for confirmation
  • Price targets shown on chart . First 181.46, then 168.31
  • Price far above 200 week SMA. Large potential downside or mean reversion        
  • https://www.tradingview.com/v/4d0fQNcR/

SLCA (Bullish)- Breakout above consolidation wedge, Elliot Wave

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fUZZHjOd/

– First sequence of another leg up after completion of the Elliot Wave Theory consolidation
– Broke out above rising wedge, which was also a breakout above the 50% Fibonacci Retracement
– Found significant support at the 50% Fib Retracement when drawn from the charts low in Aug to the High in March
– First Price Target @ $25.81
– Second Price Target @ $28.50

https://www.tradingview.com/v/hkvdpG8Z/

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